|Two New MPs for Chiswick?|
Mary Macleod and Angie Bray vulnerable says Lord Ashcroft survey
A new poll of key marginal seats is indicating that, at this stage, Labour look set to win both the Westminster constituencies that include Chiswick voters.
The survey commissioned by Tory peer Lord Ashcroft focuses on key battleground seats across the country.
Mary Macleod in Brentford & Isleworth and Angie Bray in Ealing Central and Acton could be among six London Tory MPs who lose their seats if the predicted swing to Labour takes place. The survey data shows that the Tories are currently 9 points behind Labour in these key London marginals.
The most important change since the 2010 election is the decline in the Liberal Democrat vote. 38% of people who voted for them in the last election in London marginals are now saying they would vote Labour with only 16% switching to the Conservatives.
The challenged from UKIP is likely to hit the Tories harder with two thirds of their voters saying that they would consider voting for them compared to less than half for Labour.
Mary Macleod has the smaller majority of just 3.6% and she won her seat from Labour candidate Ann Keen who had been hit by negative coverage relating to the expenses scandal.
When asked about the poll she said, “2015 is a long way to go yet and I am sure that my Parliamentary colleagues will be fighting just as hard as I will for a Conservative majority. We’ll fight the election on our Conservative achievements – over a million new private sector jobs, falling unemployment, a falling deficit, reformed welfare and reduced immigration.’
Angie Bray responded by saying, " "There are going to be lots of polls between now and the election in 2015, and a variety of outcomes predicted. The only priority for me is to keep working hard for the people of Ealing and Acton."
Both local seats had a relatively strong showing for the third placed Liberal candidate which means that the swing to Labour may be even larger than other seats.
The overall study is based on over 19,000 online interviews in 213 marginal constituencies throughout Great Britain. Lord Ashcroft says, ‘With two years to go this study is a snapshot not a prediction, but on the basis of this poll Labour would be elected with a large majority.’
Lord Ashcroft believes that the Conservative party’s targeting strategy meant it won 23 more Labour seats and 9 more Liberal Democrat seats than it would have done on a uniform swing in 2010. He says had it not been for the Conservative performance in the marginals, Labour would have been the largest parliament and would have continued in government.
March 13, 2012