Bookies Predict Uphill Battle For Local MPs

Mary Macleod and Angie Bray fighting for political life

 

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Mary Macleod MP

Mary Macleod wins seat for Tories in close contest - 2010

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If the bookies are right, the two sitting local Tory MPs, Mary Macleod and Angie Bray, have a big fight on their hands to avoid political defeat in next Thursday's poll.

Paddy Power bookmakers is offering odds of 1/7 on a Labour victory in Brentford & Isleworth with Conservative odds at 4/1 for Chiswick-based Mary Macleod and the Lib Dems at 66/1. Odds for the Green Party and UKIP are 100/1.

And for Ealing Central and Acton, currently represented by Angie Bray MP, the odds are Labour (Rupa Huq) 4/6 to win, followed by Angie Bray at 11/10, the Lib Dems at 50/1 and UKIP and the Green Party at 100/1.

Residents will be able to vote at their registered polling station between 7am and 10pm on Thursday, 7 May.

Chiswickw4.com will be covering the election and will bring the results to our readers as soon as they come in from the Count Centres. The voting will start as soon as the ballot boxes are opened, late on Thursday night and a result for Brentford & Isleworth is expected in the early hours of the morning.

Despite the odds quoted, Labour's Ruth Cadbury is continuing to campaign hard and she told chiswickw4.com; "None of us are taking this election for granted and we will continue talking to the voters right up to the close of poll."

She said she and her team were out all day every day talking to voters and added that "there is a real sense now that people want a change...It’s also been heartening to hear many residents say they’re voting for me because of the work I've done as a Councillor in this borough for over 20 years."

Ruth Cadbury supporting the postal vote

Mary Macleod, who was campaigning in Hounslow with Samantha Cameron and Boris Johnson on Friday, said it was "the most important election in a generation". Every vote would count and she wanted to build on the last five years, she said. She has a majority of just 3.6%, fewer than 2,000 votes, and won her seat five years ago from Labour candidate Ann Keen who suffered as a result of the MPs expenses scandal.

Perhaps the most important change since the 2010 election in Brentford & Isleworth is the decline in the Liberal Democrat vote but Lib Dem candidate Joe Bourke is hopeful that he will come in third place.

Will Mary Macleod be raising a glass next week? Pictured with Sec of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Liz Truss at Fuller's.

One informed local political source said that it was possible that Labou might gain 40% of the vote in Brentford & Isleworth, with strong backing expected from the Asian community at the Hounslow end of the constituency. Mary Macleod's core base in Chiswick is likely to remain loyal and she has been campaigning hard outside the Chiswick area with visits by high-powered Tory names including Prime Minister David Cameron ( twice, to Brentford and Isleworth), Boris Johnson (to Chiswick and Brentford) and Samantha Cameron (to Hounslow) on hand to lend support. Other high powered ministers also visited the constituency.

Here is a reminder of the state of play last time-

Brentford and Isleworth Constituency - 2010
Candidate Party
2005 Result
2010 Result
% Change
Mary Macleod Cons
13,918
20,022
37.2
+6.5
Ann Keen Labour
18,329
18,064
33.6
-5.4
Andrew Dakers Liberal Democrats
10,477
12,718
23.7
+0.7
Jason Hargreaves UKIP -
863
1.6
+1.6
John Hunt Green Party
1,652
787
1.5
-2.1
Paul Winnett
British National Party
-
704
1.3
+1.3
David Cunningham English Democrats -
230
0.4
+0.4
Aamir Javed Bhatti The Christian Party -
210
0.4
+0.4
Evangeline Pillai Christian Peoples Alliance -
99
0.2
+0.2
Teresa Vanneck-Surplice Independent -
68
0.1
+0.1
Majority
1,958
3.6

Candidates in the 2015 election for Brentford & Isleworth are:

Joseph Bourke (Liberal Democrat), Ruth Cadbury (Labour), Daniel Goldsmith (Green Party ), Richard Hendron (UKIP), Mary Macleod (Conservative)

 

Ealing Central and Acton Constituency - 2010

Candidate

Party

Votes

%

Change*

Bray, Angie

Conservative

17,944

38.0

+6.8

Mahfouz, Bassam

Labour Party

14,228

30.1

-3.2

Ball, Jon

Liberal Democrat

13,041

27.6

-3.0

Carter, Julie

UK Independence Party

765

1.6

+1.6

Edwards, Sarah

Green Party

737

1.6

-3.3

Fernandes, Suzanne

Christian Party

295

0.6

+0.6

Akaki, Sam

Independent

190

0.4

+0.4

 

Majority

3716

7.9

 

 

Ealing Central and Acton Candidates

  • Angie Bray - Conservative
  • Rupa Huq - Labour
  • Jon Ball - Liberal Democrats
  • Peter Florence - UKIP
  • Tom Sharman - Green
  • Andrzej Rygielski - Europeans
  • Scott Dore - Workers Revolutionary
  • Tammy Rendle - Above and Beyond
  • Jonathan Notley - Independent

This seat was newly created in 2010 replacing Ealing Acton and Shepherd's Bush. Previously held by Labour, it became a tight three-way marginal and in 2010 was won by Angie Bray from the Conservatives with a 3,716 majority.

 

 

May 2, 2015