Bookies Predict Labour Wins in Chiswick Seats

Latest betting suggests Ruth Cadbury and Rupa Huq on course to represent area

Joe Bourke, Mary Macleod, Ruth Cadbury and Mary Harpley at 2017 election

Although an overall Conservative majority seems to be the expected outcome of next Thursday’s election, Labour are currently predicted to hang on in Brentford and Isleworth and in Ealing Central and Acton, the two constituencies serving the Chiswick electorate.

Both the bookies and the polling companies are suggesting that Ruth Cadbury and Rupa Huq will be re-elected as MPs on 12 December.

At present the odds are ten to one on for a Ruth Cadbury victory although the best returns were with Ladbrokes who were offering 1/5. You can get as much as 5/1 against a Seena Shah victory for the Conservatives with Unibet although companies like Coral and Ladbrokes were offering 3/1.

The bookies see little chance of a Liberal Democrat victory in Brentford & Isleworth with their candidate Helen Cross ranked at 100/1 by Coral - the same odds being offered for the Brexit and Green Party candidates (Lucy O’Sullivan and Daniel Goldsmith). William Hill seem a bit more optimistic about her hopes offering 20/1.

This chimes with the detailed constituency level polling recently released by YouGov which rates Brentford & Isleworth as ‘likely Labour’, and shows Ruth Cadbury getting around 45% of the vote with Seena Shah under 40% and Helen Cross just over 10%.

Bet 365 are offering Rupa Huq (Labour) odds of 1/7 in Ealing Central and Acton, with the Conservative given odds at 4/1. That bookie has put the Liberal Democrats at 40/1, the Brexit Party at 500/1 and the Green Party at 500/1. Betfair and Paddy Power are giving odds for a Labour win at 1/14.

The other candidates in Ealing Central and Acton are: Julian Gallant (Cons), Kate Crossland (Green Party), Sonul Badiani (Liberal Democrat) and Samir Alsoondani (Brexit Party).

Ealing Central Acton looks even more comfortable for Labour on the YouGov poll with Rupa Huq predicted to get around 50% of the vote.

The 2017 general election was notable for the change in the the traditional Conservative vote in Chiswick as diehard supporters switched allegiances.

The two Labour candidates benefited from a large swing to the Labour Party in the snap election called by then Prime Minister Theresa May. It was later attributed to anger over Brexit in a largely 'Remain' area, an increase in young people postal voting, and concern over the Conservative's social care plans.

Dubbed the 'Revenge of the Remainers' the swing towards Labour in Chiswick, estimated at over 18% for local MP Ruth Cadbury (Brentford & Isleworth) gave her and Labour's Rupa Huq (Ealing Central & Acton) another chance to represent the constituency in Parliament but this time with five figure majorities rather than wafer thin ones.

Labour also benefited from a decision by the Green Party candidate Diana Scott, to stand down, which gave Ruth Cadbury extra votes. This time there is no election agreement and the Green Party is standing long-time member Daniel Goldsmith from Chiswick.

According to figures, the Conservative vote in the the three Chiswick wards in Brentford & Isleworth (Turnham Green, Homefields and Riverside) collapsed and Labour won over half the votes in each, a swing of over 18%.

In the 2015 election, Labour had held about 34% of the vote in Riverside, with Turnham Green and Homefield at around 32%. But in 2017, Labour managed to get over 50% of the votes in the three wards. In Turnham Green the total Labour vote was 2591 votes, the Conservatives won 2203 and the Lib Dems 365.

It appeared that in 2017 those who were against Jeremy Corbyn's leadership overcame their personal concerns in order to vote Labour and give the two local candidates their unexpected majority.

A number of other factors influenced the result in both constituencies. Turnout in Brentford & Isleworth was high, at 72.5 % (up from 68 per cent in 2015) and a late surge in registration appeared to benefit Labour. The UKIP vote in Brentford & Isleworth which was largely expected to benefit Mary Macleod, was actually split between Labour and the Conservatives. Postal voting increased from 12.3% in 2015 to 12.9%.

In 2017, Labour MP Rupa Huq seems to have benefited from her defiance of the Labour party whip when she voted against Article 50. 72% of her constituents were against leaving the EU in the referendum. Anecdotally a higher turnout from younger voters boosted her support including from students who registered themselves in the previously highly marginal constituency rather than their university town.

She also was boosted by the withdrawal of the Green Party candidate and the revelation that senior Liberal Democrat figures had urged party members to vote for her rather than their own candidate Jon Ball.

At the start of that campaign it was widely predicted that the narrow majority of the Labour incumbents in both Brentford & Isleworth and Ealing Central & Acton would be easily overtaken due to the national swing towards the Conservatives. Brentford & Isleworth was revealed to be the constituency with most bets placed at Ladbrokes.

However, as we found out, polling can get it wrong.

This week the latest national poll from Lord Ashcroft asked people how likely they were to vote for each party on a 100-point scale. The Conservatives’ average score is up slightly from 36 to 37/100, with the other parties unchanged: Labour on 28, the Liberal Democrats on 15 and the Brexit Party on 9. Remainers who voted Conservative in 2017 put their likelihood of voting Tory again at 61, down from last week’s 64 but up from the start of the campaign. Conservative Leavers put their likelihood up from 82 to 84, while Labour Leavers put their chance of voting Tory at 28/100 – up from last week’s 25 but still down since the election was called.

December 7, 2019