DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE ON CHISWICK PROPERTY
Deering's analysis of Land Registry figures
suggests Chiswick property prices rose by only
2.3% over the last year. He says don't be panicked
It seems to be nearly every day that the press
is carrying a story about our amazing soaraway
property market and how prices just never seem
to stop rising. Even ChiswickW4.com
seems to have got in on the act by regularly
reporting on the latest micro-statistics for
the local area.
the coverage is agreed that both nationally,
London-wide and in Chiswick prices are soaring
ahead. In fact when you look closely at
the numbers they are hardly rising at all in
always been a bit sceptical of these numbers
and certainly they don't reflect my own experience
having had my house regularly valued. All this
data and the often sensationalist press coverage
should be taken with a large pinch of salt.
The source of the numbers are usually estate
agencies or building societies both with a
major vested interest in making us believe
that property prices only go up.
in Chiswick have risen by only
2.3% over the last year barely
above the rate of inflation"
only really reliable figures on the residential
property market are those from the Land Registry.
Most property transactions are recorded here
and the data reflects the actual price at which
a property changes hands. The Land Registry
has no vested interest in rising property prices.
latest data from the Land Registry has just
been released. They do show a 13.1% increase
in prices across London but on the land registry
you can get detailed numbers for individual
areas. These show a very different picture
for this area. In fact prices in Chiswick have
risen by only 2.3% over the last year barely
above the rate of inflation.
the three months to June 2002, 317 Chiswick
properties changed hands at an average price
of £351,860. In the same period a year
earlier the average price was £344,033,
a rise of just 2.3%, way below the double digit
rises every other source seems to suggest we
are getting. Prices did dip following the September
11th atrocities but not by much and the subsequent
rise has got them barely above the levels they
thing that the numbers do show is that the
top end of the market has all but frozen. There
have been very few transactions in Chiswick
that have involved a property changing hands
at over £1mn over the last year. If you
allow for this by looking at the price changes
just for terraced houses then it shows that
prices are up by only 3.8%
you are thinking of buying property in Chiswick
then the clear message is don't be panicked
by all this press coverage. Rental rates are
falling and there is massive amounts of new
property to come on stream locally - particularly
in the old Queen Charlottes development. This
all suggests that at some point in the future
prices could fall. At the moment they are being
sustained by historically low interest rates
which could last for ever but then again they
might not. Low interest rates didn't do much
to help the stock market recently.
Deering works as a City based financial analyst
and is a member of this site. The views expressed
are his own. He can be contacted on firstname.lastname@example.org.
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