|Chiswick Property Sales - October 2010|
Local property prices fall from peak levels
The latest official figures are indicating that local property prices have fallen from the peak seen during the Summer of 2010.
The average price of a home sold in W4 since the end of the third quarter of last year £638,778. This compares to £669,548 for the period July-September 2010.
Oliver Finn's Christian Harper said "Although speculation of global economics played an important part in the latest Land registry figures compounded by press speculation of a property crash in early September the actual figures match an apparent steady pattern with 2009 and even 2008. I am not concerned with this small swing in price points as they represent to be a small percentage of swing in the scheme of things. I find it much more interesting to see the change in levels of activity - only 27 completions took place in November. Activity levels need to dramatically improve to keep the market both fluid and sustainable.
"If stock levels fail to reach at least an average, buyers will either tire of looking due to nothing being available or become frenzied to buy which will cause a spiky market - which will undermine the foundations of market stability for 2011 and beyond."
It remains to be seen whether or not local home price get a subsequent boost from buyers from the financial sector. Some analysts are predicting that Chiswick will benefit from increased demand due to bankers' bonuses.
Featherstone Leigh Manager Matt Thompson said: "The impact of City bonuses to the Chiswick market was felt last year. With the City expected to pour out £7bn a proportion of this money will find its way to W4 which should increase the demand for the already restricted levels of stock here at the moment."
According to the Land Registry London property prices are up by 6.8% in November compared to last year. This is the slowest annual rise in 2010 but remains the highest level in the country.
This brings the average property price to £341,009, in comparison to the figure for England and Wales, which is £164,773.
Andrew Nunn of Andrew Nunn & Associates said, "The 2010 market witnessed some very healthy prices being achieved due to a scarcity of supply. This became more severe as the year developed with potential sellers failing to find suitable alternative property. Demand surpassed expectation with domestic buyers benefiting from the recovery of the London financial sector and overseas buyers benefiting from exchange rates and uncertain home economies.
"Prime property is selling for record prices whilst secondary and tertiary property is more price sensitive. Should interest rates rise by the middle of 2011, a likely scenario given current and future inflationary pressure, then more supply will inevitably come to the market. Once buyers see they have choice then the market will calm down and we will see single figure price appreciation. The message is clear should you be thinking of selling in 2011 then take well informed advice early in the year and do not be suckered in to "the highest price" - it may work against you and remember the sentiment in any market can change very quickly"
For the country as a whole November's data shows a fall of 0.6%. This is the third consecutive month in which prices have fallen. The annual house price growth rate has continued to decline for the sixth month in a row, with an increase of 2.2%. This is the smallest growth seen in 12 months.
Nationwide's House Price index for December which is based on offer prices rather than actual sales like the Land Registry did show an increase.
Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said, "When house prices are trending down only modestly rather than decisively – as has been the case in recent months – it is not unusual to a see a mixed pattern of monthly declines and occasional increases."
He added, "London and the South East saw particularly large price gains during this period (2010), as the scarcity of property was most acute in these regions. London will also have benefited from the strong recovery in the financial sector, which is an important driver of buyer confidence and housing demand in the capital."
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October 2010 Property Sales in Chiswick
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Source: Land Registry
April 6, 2011