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Ward by ward analysis of voting in Ealing Borough

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With the local elections fast approaching we have produced an analysis of the results for wards in the borough showing the majority of the sitting Councillors for each ward. The wards are ranked by the majority and if a uniform swing is assumed it makes it possible to predict which wards need to be won by the various parties in order to achieve their objectives.

See table of analysis

A recent study by London Communications and the London School of Economics concluded that the Labour party would retain control of Ealing although they admitted that there was an outside chance of the Council switching to no overall control. Ealing is seen as a 'bellwether' borough and the party which wins control of it is also likely to win in the next general election.

The opposition must win 14 seats from the ruling Labour group to end their control of the Council. Acton looks set to be a key battle ground with six of these target seats in the East Acton and Acton Central wards. The Conservatives will be hoping that hostility in the area to the tram will result in a big enough swing to them to win these seats.

Assuming that the swing in votes is uniform across all wards then the opposition must win all the seats in Perivale and Northfield as well as the two Acton wards plus at least two seats in the Greenford Broadway ward which is represented by Council leader Leonora Thomson. The majority of Labour over the Conservatives in this ward is 18.8% but for the second seat to change hands it would just require 250 voters to switch from Labour to Conservative.

For the Conservatives to win overall control they would need to have won all the seats in the wards mentioned so far plus all three seats in the Hobbayne ward (or two if they won the seat in Ealing Common from the Lib Dems.)

The Liberal Democrats are hoping to spring a surprise in South Acton using their strong base in Southfield ward. The issue of the loss of part of the South Acton recreation ground to property development plus the tram has led them to believe that they could perform strongly here. If they were to win in South Acton then the Council would change to no overall control if Acton Central and all the seats with a smaller majority were lost to Labour.

Ward by ward guide to Ealing borough

Wards listed by size of majority of sitting councillors

Ward Labour Cons Lib
Majority %
Ealing Common 0 2 1
Lib Dems and Conservatives fighting it out in this ward
Northfield 3 0 0
Top target for Conservatives
Perivale 3 0 0
Northolt Mandeville 0 3 0
Conservatives held seat comfortably in by-election in June 2005
East Acton 3 0 0
Conservatives could take one seat with just 50 voters switching to them from Labour
Cleveland 0 3 0
Greenford Green 0 3 0
Acton Central 3 0 0
Greenford Broadway 3 0 0
Council leader Leonora Thomson's ward.
If opposition parties take two seats at Greenford Broadway and all the other Labour seats with a smaller majority then Labour lose overall control of the Council . This would require at least 250 former Labour voters to switch to the Conservatives in the ward
Hobbayne 3 0 0
Conservatives need to win this ward to gain overall control
If the Conservatives win all two seats in Hobbayne ward plus all the other seats with a smaller majority they will regain control of the Council. If the Liberal Democrats keep their seat in Ealing Common then the Conservatives need all three seats in Hobbayne ward
South Acton 3 0 0
Target ward for Liberal Democrats - loss of part of recreation ground could be a factor
Elthorne 3 0 0
North Greenford 3 0 0
Ealing Broadway 0 3 0
Southfield 0 0 3
Walpole 3 0 0
Northolt West End 3 0 0
Labour held seat comfortably in by-election last year
Hangar Hill 0 3 0
Norwood Green 3 0 0
Dormers Wells 3 0 0
Lady Margaret 3 0 0
Southall Broadway 3 0 0
With Southall Green, one of the safest Labour seats in Metropolitan London
Southall Green 3 0 0
Total 48 17 4
35 is the number of seats needed for control

April 29, 2006