No overall control in Hounslow and Ealing says report

Study by educational bulletin says Labour will lose in both

  Related Links

Acton wards likely to hold the key to local election

Hounslow Borough Election Analysis

Labour predicted to win in local boroughs by London Communications Agency

"Widespread vote-rigging" ahead of elections - police investigate in Hounslow

Tories reaffirm anti-tram stance

The Untangled Web has released its Guide to the 2006 Local Elections which includes a complete council-by-council set of predictions for next Thursday’s local elections. In it they are predicting that Labour will lose overall control of both Hounslow and Ealing Borough.

The predictions have been compiled using a combination of past and current voting trends together with information gathered from people on the ground. Their conclusions contradicted an early report by the London Communications Agency which said that Labour would hold onto both Councils despite predicting widespread losses across the capital.

Gareth Knight, Head of Projecting Politics, which runs the Untangled Web, said of Houslow Borough, " Labour are vulnerable in the following wards: Bedfont, Brentford, Feltham North, Feltham West, Hanworth Park, Heston Central, Heston East, Hounslow South and Syon. These wards represent 11 Labour council seats it is highly likely that with national swing, Labour will lose at least 7 of these 11 seats."

On Ealing he said, "We have received feelers from the borough that the tram project could sway even more voters into voting for someone other than Labour than the national swing though we do not think the project is likely to deliver an outright Conservative majority."

Ealing council is predicted to go 'No Overall Control' (NOC) because Labour only need to lose 14 council seats to lose control. The report says they are vulnerable in following wards: Acton Central, East Acton, Greenford Broadway, Hobbayne, North Greenford, Northfield, Perivale. These 7 wards represent 21 council seats. It is therefore highly likely according to the authors, that given national swing, 14 of these 21 are likely to be lost.

The report is not all good news for David Cameron however as it states that, “ the Conservatives have to perform exceptionally well at this year’s local elections to deliver any genuine mood that the Conservatives are preparing for national government. This is because the period 1993 to 1996 was exceptionally bad as the deeply unpopular Conservative government was punished in local elections to the point of almost being wiped out.”

The Untangled Web is a weekly bulletin sent via e-mail to schools for use as a teaching resource or as a handout in schools. There are presently over 2,000 schools which receive the bulletin. It combines topical news with the curriculum for both Politics and Citizenship lessons.

Gareth said, “This is the first fully comprehensive guide to a set of local elections specifically aimed at increasing interest in them among people aged 15-18. Our publications are sent to hundreds of schools across the country every week and have a potential readership of over a million soon-to-be voters. We hope this publication will help people engage with and take an active interest in these elections.”

The report is available online at

April 29, 2006